Warren Brief — 2026-04-14

BTC mid-term election cycle timing

Buy BTC on first trading day of December in mid-term election years (Dec 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022). Hold for 18 months, then flat. Tests whether post-election liquidity cycles give BTC a timing edge.
Final value
$136,046
CAGR
18.3%
Max drawdown
-61.8%
Sharpe
0.64

The strategy produced a result but the interpretation wasn't clear-cut. Inspect the full dashboard to see which cycle drove the outcome.

low 2010-09-17 → 2026-04-13 $10,000 start 3 trades
~2.5 mid-term cycles in BTC's liquid history. Tiny sample. Crypto regime has changed materially each cycle. Do not trust this number.